Should He Stay.....Or Go To The Country

After a 100 days of plentiful popularity that lasted throughout conference, and aligned a party and a leader together you had to expect some fall out. Cameron and "that speech" as some of the media have dubbed it, seems to have whipped the polls against Labour. Falling popularity and a silence from Labour Party HQ seems to be deafening.

"You never had it so good"
Unlike the recollections of the past this is different, a winter of discontent fell on a country that was stuck in the past, second class in Europe, a failing economy and industry all lead to "Big Jim" losing out. Many pollsters predicted a hung Parliament before Brown hit the town so to speak, and this poll boost may be explained coming of the back of a successful Tory party conference. After all if you are to receive a week of total promotion across all forms of the media you are barring a massive split going to be boosted.

Bold Predictions
I stated in a previous blog entry only a week or two ago that this country would not go to the polls this October, the flames were never fanned, and now Brown has to go in November, if he doesn't the Tory party will smell blood and will be in for the kill. Silence or at least media silence on the subject from Labour seems strange, and the recent Northern Rock Debacle will have shaken thoughts on the economy for many. If the polls continue to falter for Labour, and the key ones are not this weeks but next weeks, then it is reasonable that this country could wake up on a dark November morning facing 5 years of a Conservative government. Do I think this will happen? Probably not. The Tories as most pollsters know need to be quite ahead in the polls at this stage, but if Brown continues to falter, continues to look less of a leader and less of man with principle then yes the Tories will be in Government or at the very least, we will have a hung Parliament and then the Liberal Democrats are welcomed to the show.

The Future?
If an election is called, and Brown wins but with what looks like a smaller majority, Cameron will remain and revitalised, Brown will tow more of the party line, and Labour though may look tied down maybe more efficient. A Hung Parliament would bring the fringe parties into line, the main factor behind whether the Lib Dem's would join in with Labour would be election reform, something which may also benefit Labour later. A Tory victory with a mandate to govern for five years would leave Brown probably battered, surely his annoyance would signal the end for Brown and as one of the architects of the original New Labour idea, it would close this chapter, however the mantel would be passed on and Labour will not spend 18 years out of government again, if this is indeed the end of Gordon Brown.