Don't Bottle It Brown - The Inheritance Outlook

The press in recent days have trampled over the Brown premiership and left Labour damaged., Alistair Darling, the chancellor is expected to try and regain the political ground by announcements over Inheritance Tax and private equity on overseas business men. Yes he should chase the latter, however if he bottles it and swings inheritance tax in favour of the rich, then he will have shown great weakness, and i for one would lose the respect that he and Brown had gained from me since taking over from Tony Blair.

"The Death Tax"

Inheritance tax should never be scrapped in the short term for opinion poll votes, in favour of long term poverty. If Labour scrapped the progressive tax and it's agenda which it set out at the last budget it will not help as Brown is damaged over this already, he should be instead be showing the public tomorrow how a progressive Britain moves forward with a redistribution that as he liked to say "gives every child a future" and not just the ones who inherit wealth. Maybe the level of such tax should be raised but by no more than £50,000, this would safe guard the aspirational working/middle classes who could at some point if house prices continue to spiral, fall under such a tax.

Tory Spin

The facts are that it affects 6%, the Tory tax plans DON'T give the middle classes some breathing space, they basically take from the very rich, to give to the fairly rich. That's Tory redistribution for you, a pathetic attempt at tackling an issue that would be nothing without the media who build it up with words such as "Death Tax" and wheel out some old granny who apparently will be effected, but who disappears from the radar, political communication at it's very worse.

"Progressive Taxes"
These taxes, while they don't affect 94% of people, pay for many a service which the people who are in the highest 6% enjoyed. Many of the people who are now entering the retirement age never had it so good, especially the affluent and well off. The youngsters of the current generation are paying taxes that are at the highest levels, and money from these are being fed into a state pension scheme which they are likely never to benefit from. How can this possibly seem fair? It isn't, and that is why inheritance tax should remain at a certain level so not to tax the aspirational working/middle classes, but also to bring money back for the economy that funded them throughout most of their lives.

Serious About Leading

If Labour is serious about giving every child a chance, and remember this was Brown's statement, whilst the Tory conference was all about an "Election" and policies that bring on unfair tax systems, then Darling will not heed to this short term idea, if he does he will lose some of the party and along with it he will give the Tories a stick in which to smack Labour down.

Should He Stay.....Or Go To The Country

After a 100 days of plentiful popularity that lasted throughout conference, and aligned a party and a leader together you had to expect some fall out. Cameron and "that speech" as some of the media have dubbed it, seems to have whipped the polls against Labour. Falling popularity and a silence from Labour Party HQ seems to be deafening.

"You never had it so good"
Unlike the recollections of the past this is different, a winter of discontent fell on a country that was stuck in the past, second class in Europe, a failing economy and industry all lead to "Big Jim" losing out. Many pollsters predicted a hung Parliament before Brown hit the town so to speak, and this poll boost may be explained coming of the back of a successful Tory party conference. After all if you are to receive a week of total promotion across all forms of the media you are barring a massive split going to be boosted.

Bold Predictions
I stated in a previous blog entry only a week or two ago that this country would not go to the polls this October, the flames were never fanned, and now Brown has to go in November, if he doesn't the Tory party will smell blood and will be in for the kill. Silence or at least media silence on the subject from Labour seems strange, and the recent Northern Rock Debacle will have shaken thoughts on the economy for many. If the polls continue to falter for Labour, and the key ones are not this weeks but next weeks, then it is reasonable that this country could wake up on a dark November morning facing 5 years of a Conservative government. Do I think this will happen? Probably not. The Tories as most pollsters know need to be quite ahead in the polls at this stage, but if Brown continues to falter, continues to look less of a leader and less of man with principle then yes the Tories will be in Government or at the very least, we will have a hung Parliament and then the Liberal Democrats are welcomed to the show.

The Future?
If an election is called, and Brown wins but with what looks like a smaller majority, Cameron will remain and revitalised, Brown will tow more of the party line, and Labour though may look tied down maybe more efficient. A Hung Parliament would bring the fringe parties into line, the main factor behind whether the Lib Dem's would join in with Labour would be election reform, something which may also benefit Labour later. A Tory victory with a mandate to govern for five years would leave Brown probably battered, surely his annoyance would signal the end for Brown and as one of the architects of the original New Labour idea, it would close this chapter, however the mantel would be passed on and Labour will not spend 18 years out of government again, if this is indeed the end of Gordon Brown.